The Future Begins Today

The only edict in the U.S. Constitution concerning the Presidency is that the person elected take an Oath of Affirmation to officially become President. Never shy about over-blowing a simple action, America has developed a long list of procedures, traditions and ceremonies to document for history the “peaceful transfer of leadership.” Today – Jan. 20, 2017 – was one of those days.

At noon Eastern Standard Time, Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts led Donald J. Trump through the Oath of Affirmation, officially making Trump the 45^th President of the United States of America. One of my favorite trivia questions is: How many men have been President? Hint: 45 is wrong. I’ll give you the correct answer and why at the end (a shameless ploy to get you to read this whole blog post).

Another tradition – though less official – is to gauge a President’s success on several statistical numbers. I have my own worries and trepidations about Trump being President – I voted for Bernie Sanders – but I will withhold judgement until I see for myself how various indicators rise or fall. Here are some of the classifications I will be monitoring:

Unemployment

Per the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics website (last report Dec. 2016), the unemployment rate for white males over age 21 is 4.2 percent, 3.4 percent for white females and 11.5 percent for white teenagers age 16 to 19 of both sexes. Among African-Americans, the rate is 8.7 for men, 7.1 for women and 23.3 for teens. Among Asians of both sexes and age range, the rate is 4.0. The unemployment rate for People with Disabilities, which I, obviously, have an interest in, is 10.6 percent for white males, 10.8 for white females, 17.4 for African Americans, 13.3 for Hispanics and 7.4 for Asians.

Income

One of my favorite statistical websites, primarily

because it stresses to be non-partisan, is FactCheck.org. According to FactCheck, the median household income was $56,516 in 2015. Apparently the 2016 figures will not be released until September. However, 43.1 million Americans have incomes below the poverty line. According to DisabilityStatistics.org, the median household income for People with Disabilities was $41,600 with 5.8 million (27 percent) below the poverty line. I am one of those 5.8 million. I live on Social Security Disability. I am not going to share what I receive monthly, but I will say I did not get any Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) increase in 2016 and only three-tenths of 1 percent ($0.03) in 2017.

Home Values

The National Association of Realtors report that as of November 2016, the national median price for a single-family home was $236,500.

Deficit and Debt

Per FactCheck, the annual federal deficit for fiscal year 2016 is $587 billion and the debt owed to the public is $14.4 trillion.

I know a segment of my friends are saying I should be thanking President Obama for making these numbers better than they were 8 years ago, and an equal segment saying I should be blaming Obama for them being as bad as they currently are. For both sides, it doesn’t matter. This is where we are today, and it’s from here we move forward.

My own numbers

As I’ve mentioned, I have my own numbers I will keep my eye on. On Jan. 19, I bought gas for my van. The price for 87 grade unleaded at Sam’s Club in Prescott Valley, AZ was $2.09.9 (basically $2.10) per gallon. The day before Trump made a campaign stop in Prescott Valley this past fall, the Sam’s Club price was $1.89.9, which rose to $1.99.9 the day of Trump’s visit and was $2.15.9 two weeks ago. I’m not implying anything other than noting how the prices at one particular station have changed.

I am also looking at the grocery ad that came in my local paper on Feb. 18. The larger grocer in my area is Fry’s (a sister to the Kroger’s chain in the Midwest). With a Fry’s membership card, 2 percent milk is $1.99/gallon, ground beef is $1.99/lb., and a whole pineapple is 99 cents. At my local Safeway grocer, New York steaks are $3.97/lb., a dozen Shamrock Farms large eggs is $3.50, and a 16-oz. package of Oscar Mayer sliced bacon is $4.99.

And I’m keeping an eye on other things I buy regularly like toothpaste, deodorant, jeans and tennis shoes. Whatever the numbers are for these and other things in 1 year, 2 years, 4 years and possibly 8 years should be the determining factor for whether Donald Trump is a good or bad President. I suggest you do the same for the things you buy in your area, then you can make your own independent determination.

By the way, the answer to the question “How many men have been President?” is 44. Grover Cleveland’s two four-year terms were separated by the one-term presidency of Benjamin Harrison. When you look at the chronological list of Presidents, Cleveland is counted twice – 22 and 24. Presidencies of two consecutive terms, such as Barack Obama’s, is only counted once.

(Historical note: Woodrow Wilson’s second wife, Edith, became “acting President” for the last year and a half of Wilson’s second term after he suffered a serious stroke. I’ve read and heard some historians say Edith Wilson would have been a good President in her own right, if she hadn’t been “before her time.”)